Coronavirus: Hong Kong University estimated 250,000 Mainlanders will be infected


Photo by SIng Tao Daily

The number of corona virus cases in Hong Kong has soared dramatically. The Hong Kong University School of Public Health and the News and Media Research Centre held a workshop on the corona virus infectious disease yesterday. The director of the Epidemiology and Biostatistics Division of the University of Hong Kong School of Public Health, Yi Guan, estimated that the actual number of infected people in the Mainland may exceed 230,000.

According to Sing Tao Daily report,  he expected that the number of infections in Hong Kong alone would be higher than the number of confirmed cases, but believed that the current testing was sufficient, saying that it was not possible to test all returnees from overseas.

 Yi pointed out that since the initial definition of corona virus is still unknown to everyone, so there must be a large group of diagnosed patients who are not defined to be infected with Covid-19 in the early stage, and as everyone begins to understand the virus, the definition of the diagnosis is thus More and more wide.

He took the Diamond Princess cruise case as an example. About 10% of the patients were diagnosed but had no symptoms. Therefore, he believed that the actual number of new Covid-19 infections in various places must be greater than the number announced, and that the actual number of infected people in the mainland may exceed 230,000. He also agreed that the current number of infections in Hong Kong must be higher than the confirmed cases, but believed that the current test for new coronary pneumonia was sufficient, saying that the testing involved too many manpower and resources, and it was not possible to test all returnees from overseas.

Covid-19 infections has a higher mortality rate in Italy. Yi Guan believes that this is because severe patients are generally delayed from the onset of disease to three weeks later. Therefore, the mortality rate in some European countries that are still in the initial outbreak may not reflect the actual situation. He believes that the mortality rate in Italy has risen earlier than other European countries due to the outbreak in Italy at an earlier time. It is expected that the number of deaths may increase significantly after two or three weeks, and the mortality rates in large-scale outbreak countries will be similar.

Source Sing Tao Daily